Thursday, June 12, 2008

ESU Students Study Mathematical Modeling,
Use Course Applications to Serve Need by Forecasting Population for Lehigh Planning Commission

This spring East Stroudsburg University's Mathematical Modeling class had the opportunity to participate in a service-learning project on population forecasting models with the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission (LVPC). The LVPC serves Lehigh and Northampton counties by creating a plan for orderly growth in the Lehigh Valley. Predicting accurate population growth is central to the LVPC's mission.

The LVPC last prepared municipal population projections in June 2007. The next update of these projections would likely be after the 2010 Census. The purpose for the student project was to provide practical experience working on a real issue and identify ideas to improve the projection methodology in the future.

After an introductory presentation by Mr. Geoffrey Reese, assistant director and Mr. Michael Donchez, senior transportation planner of the LVPC, fourteen students and their professor, Dr. Olivia Carducci, assistant professor of mathematics, spent the last month of the semester researching population models. The students studied the process the LVPC currently uses for municipal population forecasting and researched alternate population forecasting procedures. The project culminated in a written report and an oral presentation to Mr. Reese and Mr. Donchez on May 8.

According to Carducci, "The educational benefits of this project were invaluable and the LVPC benefited from new insights into trends in population forecasting. The results of the students' efforts may provide opportunities to refine new population projection methodologies as part of future class projects working with the LVPC."